Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that no ceasefire between the United States and Iran is in effect between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any US-Iran ceasefire commitment to refrain from military hostilities in effect, including statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement. The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify. Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify. Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the US government and the US military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
- Resolver: official source.
- Deadline: closing date in UTC.
- Disputed outcomes: handled by moderators within 48 hours.
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